Enhancing the Performance of Engineering Projects Considering Future Uncertainty: The Case Study of Centralized Waste Management System

While the future is always at risk of uncertainties, engineering projects generally take place under fixed assumptions and predetermined conditions. Therefore, uncertainties can transform and even endanger the fate of those projects. Regarding the long-term lifecycle of moststrategic projects, finding factors which create uncertainty and counteracting its effects on the system, on the other hand, has always been a concern for designers of these systems. In this paper, a simulation-based approach is introduced to evaluate the value of engineering projects by considering uncertainty. This study attempts to show a comparison between the results of using constant assumptions against uncertain hypotheses by influencing the system in the face of uncertainty over a long period of time. The results of this study not only address the impact of uncertainty on the economic evaluation of engineering projects but also by analyzing the data obtained, can be used to create a flexible system that can adapt itself to the effects of changes. It also provides decision-makers and managers with the opportunity to compare deterministic and uncertain designs to explore and find decisions for applying best strategies to counteract on different scales ofprojects. This paper examines this uncertainty in a waste management system

کلیدواژه ها:

Economic Evaluation ، Uncertainty ، Simulation ، Waste Management systems