The Role of Crude Oil Price in Determining Fiscal Policy in Oil-Exporting Countries

The dependency of oil-exporting countries to revenue from the sale of oil and unpredictable fluctuations in prices highlighted the important role and expandedintervention of government in the economy of countries which is done through annual budget as the most important fiscal policy instrument (through increase spending).Therefore, this study examines the role of fiscal policy in crude oil prices in oilexporting countries. To this end, it will consider the relationship between shocks andfluctuations and skewness of the crude oil to proportion of consumption or current public spending to GDP (expenses credit) (The most public spending in comparisonwith developmental spending and government investment) in 5oilexportingcountriesincluding Iran, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Venezuela and Norway during 1976-2010 by using panel data (fixed effects method). The results of the study show that creating positive shock of crude oil price will decrease the current public spending to GDP and the fluctuations of oil prices also have negative impacts while skewness of oil prices have positive impacts on current spending to GDP. All it means that in oil producing countries, current spending increases when they face the crude oil price shock. However, the extra revenue from the positive impact of oil prices are spent on improving budget shortage or increasing budget surplus of the government, and also the governments in the face of fluctuations in crude oil prices do not proceed in increasing the prices quickly and observe it. If oil prices in different periods have uptrend, the governments expect uptrend of oil prices.

کلیدواژه ها:

Fiscal Policy ، Shock Oil Price ، Oil Price Volatility ، Oil Price Skewness ، Panel Data Model.