Estimating Population Breast Cancer Mortality Fractions in Ardebil (northwest of Iran) from in-Hospital Mortality; based on Murray s Method

Introduction & Aim: Breast cancer is the most common cancer among women with 23% of all women s cancers. It is also responsible for 12.7% of deaths from cancer among women in the world and has the first rank. The purpose of this study was to estimate the expected mortality rate of breast cancer in Ardebil province using the Murray s method.Methods: This study was carried out using death information in hospitals of Ardabil province based on the proposed Murray s method (statistical method for estimating the number of expected deaths in the community using hospital data) and ultimately the percentage of relative error In order to explain the existing situation and compare it with the death record in the Health Deputy.Results: Based on the results of the present study, 46 deaths from breast cancer occurred in Ardabil s hospitals in the year 2011-15. Based on the Murray s method, the expected number of deaths from breast cancer for a total of 5 years was 128 cases and the highest number of estimates The age group is 30-60 years old with 95 deaths. Compared to the number of deaths registered by the Health Deputy,-30.6% had a relative error, which is low by the Health Deputy.Discussion: According to the results of the present study, the death record is lower by the health department and It is necessary to adopt strategies to improve the process of recording and reporting deaths by related devices.

کلیدواژه ها:

Breast Cancer ، Mortality ، Murray s Method ، Ardabil Province ، Estimation of Death