Identifying cyclical behavior of housing market

This paper analyzes the duration of house price upturns and downturns in the Tehran housing market. Because of the key role of housing market in the economy, identification of housing cycles has been an important issue in the study of economy. I identify turning points in Tehran housing price index (1992-2015) using standardbusiness cycle dating method called Bry- Boschan algorithm. I document five recessions and four expansions phase over the sample period. On average, downturns in Tehran housing market are longer than upturns but amplitude in expansions are higher than recession periods. I recognize three complete cycles in housing price that last about23 quarters on average. This information would be useful for policy makers to take more precise actions and avoid great upturns and downturns in housing market andeconomy.

کلیدواژه ها:

Housing cycle ، Bry- Boschan algorithm ، Recessions ، Expansions