IMPACT OF OIL, CRISES AND ECONOMIC INTEGRATION ON GROWTH: A CAUSAL ANALYSIS OF THE GULF-ASEAN ECONOMIES

While energy especially oil, crises and economic integration have been playing an important role in development and growth in East West Asia economies and their intertwining relations, only limited quantitative research on their impact has been arried out and reported for improved debate and credible policy use (ASEAN, 2008).This paper uses an econometric modelling innovation with features superior to existing methodologies, namely the endogenous gravity theory (eg, Tran Van Hoa,2004), to provide rigorous substantive evidence satisfying Kydland (2006) data-model consistency criterion to this impact study for reliable regional policy analysis. The paper first analyses the major economic and trade patterns between the Gulf states and ASEAN over the past three decades for relevant historical correlative support. Second, a new endogenous trade-growth model for these economies is constructed and estimated to provide substantive causal evidence on the impact. Implications of the findings for economic and trade policy development between the Gulf states and ASEAN are then discussed for possible uses by academic, business and government decision-makers.

کلیدواژه ها:

Oil economics ، Gulf states ، ASEAN ، crises and shocks ، economic integration ، economic modelling and forecasts ، Kydland data-model consistency ، regional economic and trade policy