On The Developing of Scenarios for Hormoz Island Tourism’s Future

Regarding tourism industry’s importance as a crucial source of economic development, especially in coastal areas and the necessity of maintaining a competitiveness level for organizations which in turn results in value creation for various stakeholders, this paper aims to discusses different scenarios of Hormoz island tourism with a 2024 horizon. Three alternative scenarios of the industry were developed and investigated through workshops, with the participation of a group of internal and external experts, managers, academics, and representatives from industry and local government by use of deck study and interviews. The three scenarios, based on key forces and trends are identified according to possible, probable and preferred futures (3Ps) as: (1) chameleon scenario; (2) volcano scenario; (3) and steady streams. These scenarios are of practical use for managers, policy makers and other practitioners as they provide a framework for the development and assessment of strategies and policies for the development of the region and serve as a tool to challenge mindsets and mental models. The paper contributes to the knowledge of scenario methods in practice, especially in coastal areas, and provides a framework for policy planners and managers to have a better understanding of the uncertainties they are likely to face in planning development plans.

کلیدواژه ها:

Scenarios ، Tourism ، Developing Tourism ، Hormoz Island