Project risks assessment by using mathematical theory of evidence under uncertainty conditions

Project risk management is one of the project management phases. Risk assessment is one of the principal phases of risk management. Some attributes such as " Occurrence Probability", " Consequence Impact" and " Uncertainty in Estimation " are used to assessing the risk. The main objective of this paper is project risk assessment in these attributes under uncertainty conditions. First we clarify aspects and types of uncertainty, i. e. ambiguity and vagueness. In this paper we considered ambiguity. We describe " Fuzzy Measures" and " Mathematical Theory of Evidence", which is described in fuzzy measures framework. Then, three aspects of uncertainties, i. e. " Measure of Dissonance", " Measure of Confusion" and " Measure of Non- Specificity in Evidences" are discussed. Using fuzzy measures and mathematical theory of evidence, we will suggest uncertainty assessment model. A numerical example in energy industry is proposed to illustrate the model.

کلیدواژه ها:

Risk Assessment ، Uncertainty ، Fuzzy Measures ، Mathematical Theory of Evidence ، Ambiguity ، Vagueness