Warranty-oriented life cycle cost analysis of repairable products: A Bayesian and MLE-based approach

This paper develops a compact analytical Life-Cycle Cost (LCC) framework for repairable products sold under a renewal-type free-repair warranty. The model links Bayesian posterior prediction of failure times with a threshold-based exponential quality-related function, while keeping repair cost and quality-related cost as two explicit components of the manufacturer's expected cost rate. The Bayesian structure accounts for uncertainty in limited failure observations, and the quality function represents the economic effect of post-threshold deterioration. The analytical framework is illustrated through a hypothetical numerical example, a limited sensitivity analysis, and a supplementary sample-size comparison. The results provide an illustrative assessment of how failure-rate estimation and quality-related parameters may affect the warranty-duration decision. The numerical findings are intended to demonstrate the behavior of the proposed analytical framework rather than to constitute empirical validation based on a representative numerical example.

کلیدواژه ها:

Life-Cycle Cost ، Bayesian failure model ، warranty cost ، Repairable products ، Quality