A Theoretical Framework for Standardizing Laser Reliability Testing: From Component Degradation to System-Level MTBF Prediction

The absence of standardized test methods for laser system reliability leads to incomparable and often misleading Mean Time Between Failure (MTBF) values, obscuring true lifecycle costs and performance. This paper presents a novel theoretical framework to address this critical gap. We synthesize isolated component-level failure models into a unified system-level theory, integrating the Weibull distribution for time-dependent failure analysis and the Cox proportional hazards model for multi-stress analysis. The core of our framework is a generalized model that quantifies the effective system failure rate deff as a function of key operational stressors like current (I) and temperature (T). Our analysis reveals non-linear relationships, demonstrating that a slight derating of operating current (e.g., to ۹۵% of maximum) can theoretically increase MTBF by over ۲۵%. The framework also identifies critical "crossover points" where dominant failure mechanisms shift between subsystems. This work provides a principled, theoretical foundation for developing transparent, reproducible, and application-specific standardized test protocols, bridging the gap between reliability theory and practical laser engineering to enable accurate lifespan prediction and meaningful manufacturer comparisons.

کلیدواژه ها:

Laser Reliability ، MTBF ، Standardized Testing ، Weibull Distribution ، Cox Model ، Failure Analysis ، Predictive Modeling ، Photonics Engineering