Spatial and Temporal Risk Analysis of PPRV Outbreaks in Endemic Areas: A Scoping Review

Surveillance shows that peste des petits ruminants (PPR) is endemic in both Africa and Asia due to its continuous circulation. Several epidemiological factors work together to support PPR’s geographical spread. To investigate the risk of PPR transmission, analytical techniques based on spatial, spatiotemporal, and transmission dynamics have been employed. The risk factors linked to the spatiotemporal distribution and transmission dynamics of PPR at the regional level are poorly understood. This study assessed the risks of Peste des Petits Ruminant Virus (PPRV) epidemics during a comprehensive evaluation of peer-reviewed literature, highlighting the differences between geographical and spatial-temporal techniques used in endemic zones. Utilizing the PubMed and Google Scholar databases, a scoping literature analysis of PPR research papers that evaluated PPR risks in endemic areas using spatial and spatiotemporal techniques was conducted. Eight papers with a global perspective were chosen from ۴۲, ۲۰ of which focused on Asia and ۱۴ on Africa. Of these, ۳۵.۷% employed spatial autocorrelation, while ۶۱.۹% used clustering analysis. The majority of the studies (۷۱.۲%) described temporal trends, whereas ۱۳ publications (۳۰%) used modelling methodologies. Geographic accessibility (n=۱۹), trade and commerce (n=۱۷), environment and ecology (n=۱۲), socioeconomic variables (n=۹), and demography and livestock–wildlife interactions (n=۲۰) are the five risk factors that were assessed. All the risk factors were related; however, only two papers discussed the transmission dynamics of PPR. Our understanding of PPR outbreaks in endemic environments has improved because of the review, which also encourages evidence-based decision-making to lessen the virus’s effects on small ruminant populations. It has been demonstrated that the association of additional risk variables with livestock trade, the primary force behind livestock migration, significantly increases the probability of PPR outbreaks in endemic areas. Since many studies are conducted in Asia rather than Africa, Africa should be included in future predictive model development to evaluate possible eradication strategies at the national and regional levels.

کلیدواژه ها:

Peste des petits ruminant (PPR) epidemics ، risk factors ، spatial methods ، spatiotemporal methods