<span dir="LTR">Foresight of Community-Based Regeneration in Historic Urban Fabrics with Rural Origins: A Case Study of Sofla Neighborhood, Isfahan, Iran

Purpose- In recent years, community‑based regeneration has gained attention because of its emphasis on participation and local governance. However, uncertainty about future development paths makes planning interventions more complex. Therefore, this study explores the future of community‑based urban regeneration in the historic Sofla neighborhood of Isfahan by identifying key driving forces and possible scenarios. Design/methodology/approach- This research is applied in purpose and follows a descriptive–analytical design using a mixed approach. First, key variables affecting community‑based urban regeneration were extracted through literature review and document analysis. Next, a cross‑impact matrix questionnaire was completed by ۱۵ experts in urban planning and regeneration selected through purposive sampling. Relationships among variables were analyzed using structural analysis to determine influence and dependence levels. Finally, key drivers were used in scenario analysis to identify consistent future scenarios. Findings- The analysis revealed that "Integrated Urban Management" acts as the primary key driver, while four leverage variables—"Formalization of Local Development Office," "Preparation and Implementation of Regeneration Program," "Stakeholder Identification and Local Needs Assessment," and "Formation of Community-Based Organizations"—function as critical dual-aspect variables with the highest capacity to transform the system. Subsequently, the dual-aspect variables were entered into scenario planning analysis, yielding two consistent scenarios. The results indicate that a desirable future for regeneration relies on strengthening institutional structures, enhancing real participation, and fostering synergy between urban management and the local community. Research limitations/implications- The primary limitations of this study include the scarcity of specialized experts in this specific field, the lack of local community-based knowledge, and the ongoing dominance of a purely physical perspective in urban planning. To counter these challenges, future strategies must prioritize raising awareness and educating local communities about participatory approaches. Furthermore, shifting the planning paradigm from a traditional physical focus toward an integrated social and institutional framework is essential for meaningful urban regeneration. Originality/Value- This study provides significant value by integrating structural cross-impact matrices with scenario analysis specifically within the historic context of Isfahan’s Sofla neighborhood. Its originality lies in shifting the regeneration paradigm from standard physical interventions toward a dynamic, future-oriented model of participatory governance. Ultimately, it offers urban planners actionable empirical tools to navigate uncertainties and support informed decision-making in historic preservation.

کلیدواژه ها:

foresight ، Community-Based Regeneration ، Historic Fabrics ، Rural Origins ، Isfahan