Integrated system dynamics modeling for sustainable fisheries provisioning services

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Fisheries provisioning services deliver food production, livelihoods and ecosystem functions, but are increasingly under pressure from environmental degradation, declining fishery resources and socio-economic stressors. Traditional paradigms in fisheries governance often exhibit a deficiency in accounting for the multidirectional feedback loops linking ecological systems with socio-economic dynamics. The objectives of this study were to develop an integrated system dynamics model to assess interactions between these dimensions and identify management options to improve fisheries provisioning services through long-term scenario simulations.METHOD: A system dynamics model was integrated, consisting of social, environmental, and economic sub-models using primary and secondary data from ۲۰۱۸-۲۰۲۳. The model includes population, fishermen, floating net cages, alternative employment, willingness to be a fisher, water quality and aquatic conditions, fish restocking, capture fisheries production, fisheries productivity, fish processing innovations, income, costs, and fisher’s income. The model was verified and validated using the mean absolute error and average variation error metrics. Subsequently, predictive simulations were projected to ۲۰۴۵ under current, moderate, and optimistic scenarios.FINDINGS: Actual capture fisheries production declined by ۸۸.۹ percent, from ۵۸۸,۱۰۰ kilograms in ۲۰۱۸ to ۶۵,۰۳۵ kilograms in ۲۰۲۳ and was projected to decline to ۳۱,۱۷۹ kilograms by ۲۰۴۵ under current conditions. Under the moderate and optimistic scenarios, the number of floating net cages was modeled with an annual reduction rate of ۳۰% and ۳۵%, respectively. Production recovery commenced in ۲۰۲۷ under the moderate scenario and in ۲۰۲۶ under the optimistic scenario. Furthermore, target water quality conditions were achieved by ۲۰۴۱ and ۲۰۳۷, respectively, while fisher's net income reached positive values by ۲۰۳۴.CONCLUSION: The integrated system dynamics model underscores the potential for the sustainability of fishery production services through coordinated actions across social, environmental, and economic dimensions. The faster realization of target outcomes under the optimistic scenario highlights that proactive, coordinated interventions effectively expedite ecological restoration, fisheries output, and socioeconomic progress. This model offers a decision-support framework for assessing long-term fisheries management strategies.

کلیدواژه ها:

Ecosystem condition ، Management Model ، Reservoir ، Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) ، System dynamics.