Analysis of temperature and precipitation parameters using the general atmospheric circulation model, sixth report (Case study: Aleshtar synoptic station)

Research and evaluation of these changes in each region are crucial for accurately understanding future challenges and related planning strategies.Accordingly, this study investigates the impact of climate change on meteorological parameters at the AleshtarSynoptic Station in Lorestan Province, Iran, using the CanESM۵.۰ climate prediction model from the Sixth Assessment Report (CMIP۶). The research employs recorded temperature and precipitation data (۱۹۷۷–۲۰۲۲) and projects future climate conditions under three emission scenarios: optimistic (SSP۱-۲.۶), intermediate (SSP۲-۴.۵), and pessimistic (SSP۵-۸.۵), for two ۲۰-year periods (۲۰۳۱–۲۰۵۰ and ۲۰۵۱–۲۰۷۰). The LSRS-WG downscaling method was applied to enhance accuracy.The results show that in the SSP۱۲۶ scenario, compared to the base period, the minimum temperature and precipitation have a decreasing trend and the maximum temperature has increased. The results also show that the simulated temperature under the SSP۱-۲.۶ emission scenario has an increasing trend in the two future periods studied in the months of June to October. The results also showed that the precipitation parameter has an increasing trend in the future periods studied in the months of January to June and October to December. Overall, the results of the seasonal studies showed that the temperature parameter in the spring and summer seasons has an increasing trend and the precipitation parameter in the autumn and winter seasons follows this trend. In general, the results of this research can help in future water resources management, creating effective programs to combat climate change, and provide a basis for informed decision-making and appropriate planning.

کلیدواژه ها:

Climate Change ، Aleshtar ، simulation ، General Circulation Model