Investigating the Impact of Water, Energy, and Ggreenhouse Gas Uncertainty on Investment Returns: Application of Fuzzy Regression: Iran Case Study

This study employs a fuzzy logic-based approach to estimate the impact of uncertainty in key sustainability-related sectors—namely water, energy, waste, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and debt-to-capital ratio—on return on investment (ROI) over the period from ۱۹۹۳ to ۲۰۲۴. Given the inherently imprecise and dynamic nature of environmental and financial variables, fuzzy logic provides a robust framework to model vagueness and ambiguity in data. The analysis integrates longitudinal data across global markets, incorporating fuzzy sets to represent uncertain input variables and their nonlinear relationships with ROI. Results indicate that increased uncertainty in water and energy usage, as well as higher GHG emissions and waste production, negatively influence ROI, particularly when coupled with elevated debt-to-capital ratios. However, the application of sustainable practices that reduce these uncertainties can lead to more stable and higher investment returns. The findings offer strategic insights for investors and policymakers aiming to balance economic performance with environmental and financial risks. They also highlight the importance of investments needed to meet regulatory requirements, which are the main drivers for organizations at the financial level.

کلیدواژه ها:

Fuzzy logic ، Environmental Variables ، Return on Investment (ROI) ، Uncertainty