Indirect Effects of Financial Inclusion on Tax Revenue in Selected Developing and Developed Countries

This study employs the Panel Smooth Transition Regression (PSTR) framework to analyze how financial inclusion indirectly shapes tax revenue across ۵۰ countries (۲۸ developing, ۲۲ developed) during ۲۰۰۴–۲۰۲۴. A financial inclusion index, constructed via Principal Component Analysis (PCA) using ATM density, bank branch penetration, and outstanding deposits, serves as the transition variable. Results confirm non-linear relationships between financial inclusion, tariff structures, financial development, institutional quality, economic growth, and tax revenue. For developing nations, the threshold is ۴.۲۲۴۰ with slope ۲.۱۰۰۸. In Regime ۱, bank branches show negative effects (-۰.۲۱۶۶), while financial development is positive (۰.۲۸۴۹). Beyond the threshold, bank branches remain negative (-۰.۰۶۲۶), financial development positive (۰.۰۵۷۳), and institutional quality turns favorable (۰.۰۶۶۰). For developed economies, threshold is ۶.۷۴۶۴ with slope ۲.۱۹۹۳×۱۰⁴. In Regime ۱, bank branches are negative (-۰.۰۵۰۲) while tariffs are positive (۰.۰۵۱۶). In Regime ۲, bank branches become positive (۰.۰۰۷۷), financial development turns negative (-۰.۰۸۵۳), institutional quality becomes strongly negative (-۱.۱۲۰۵), and economic growth positive (۰.۴۴۹۶). Granger causality tests reveal bidirectional relationships in developing countries, while developed nations show unidirectional causality from tax revenue to financial inclusion. Findings underscore that financial inclusion's influence on tax revenue is non-linear and context-specific. Policy recommendations include strengthening digital financial infrastructure in developing economies and implementing regulatory frameworks to prevent excessive inclusion in developed countries.

کلیدواژه ها:

Financial Inclusion ، Tax Revenue ، PCA ، PSTR Model