The Roles of Climate Change and Food Security on Fertility Rate: Evidence from MENA Countries

Climate change and reduced food security can have devastating effects on society and especially human health. Therefore, this paper aims to investigate the impact of climate change and food security on the fertility rate in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) by applying the novel Method of Moments Quantile Regression (MMQR) technique over the period from ۲۰۰۰ to ۲۰۲۰. Historical temperature and precipitation are included in the study model as climatic factors, and the food production index is considered a proxy for food security. In addition, the impact of the female labor force participation rate and the female population on the fertility rate have been investigated. The results from the estimations suggest that food security, mean precipitation, and female population increase the fertility rate. The impact of mean precipitation increases with higher quantiles. In addition, mean temperature and female labor force participation rate significantly decrease the fertility rate in all quantiles. In addition to protecting women's rights to education and employment, policymakers in the region must adopt appropriate policies and laws to provide the conditions for them to have children. Also, since climate change is a severe threat to the region's countries, governments should adopt appropriate policies in the agricultural sector, such as preventing the production and export of water-intensive crops, to prevent food insecurity.

کلیدواژه ها:

Fertility rate ، Food security ، Methods of Moments Quantile Regression ، Precipitation ، temperature