Investigating the business continuity management system based on process risk assessment and analysis of possible scenarios in the Iranian oil, gas and petrochemical industries

The petrochemical industry is vital to Iran's non-oil economy, yet faces persistent threats from process complexities, sanctions, cyberattacks, and infrastructure failures. Traditional risk management approaches focused on accident prevention are insufficient to ensure operational resilience following major disruptions. This research addresses this gap by designing, implementing, and evaluating a Business Continuity Management System (BCMS) grounded in process risk assessment and scenario analysis, aligned with ISO ۲۲۳۰۱, within a major Iranian petrochemical company. Employing a mixed-method design combining Business Impact Analysis, HAZOP/FMEA, Fuzzy Delphi scenario analysis, and a pretest-posttest quasi-experimental framework, the study was conducted over ۱۰ months with ۳۲ senior managers and experts. Statistical analysis utilized non-parametric tests including Wilcoxon, Mann-Whitney, and Spearman correlation. Results demonstrate significant improvements: recovery time for the ethylene unit reduced from ۸.۲۵ to ۳.۳۳ hours (۶۰% improvement), crisis team preparedness increased from ۲۳ to ۳۸ out of ۴۵ (۶۵% enhancement), and all seven research hypotheses were confirmed at p<۰.۰۵. A benefit-cost ratio of ۴:۱ was achieved, and ۱۴ context-specific disruption scenarios were identified, underscoring the necessity of localizing international frameworks. This research contributes a validated ۷-step indigenous BCMS implementation model applicable to Iranian process industries facing similar continuity challenges.

کلیدواژه ها:

Business Continuity Management ، Process Risk Assessment ، Scenario Analysis ، ISO ۲۲۳۰۱ ، Petrochemical Industry ، Organizational Resilience