Geopolitical Risk Management: Business Strategies for Tariffs, Sanctions, and Political Uncertainty

Geopolitical risk management has emerged as a critical imperative for multinational corporations operating in an increasingly fragmented and volatile global environment characterized by escalating tariffs, stringent sanctions regimes, and persistent political uncertainty. This research article examines the strategies employed by leading firms to navigate these complex challenges through a mixed-methods approach that integrates quantitative analysis of firm-level performance data from ۲۰۱۸ to ۲۰۲۶ with in-depth qualitative multiple-case studies of eight major companies across technology, energy, manufacturing, and consumer goods sectors. Drawing on dynamic capabilities theory, institutional theory, and the resource-based view, the study reveals that successful geopolitical risk management involves proactive supply chain diversification, sophisticated scenario planning, strategic diplomatic engagement, ethical compliance frameworks, and the integration of geopolitical intelligence into core strategic decision-making processes. Quantitative findings demonstrate that firms with dedicated geopolitical risk committees and robust diversification strategies achieve ۱۸–۲۷% better performance metrics, including higher return on assets and lower stock volatility during periods of heightened tension, compared to less-prepared peers. Qualitative evidence highlights how adaptive organizations transform geopolitical risks into competitive advantages by building resilient networks, cultivating government relations, and maintaining ethical standards that enhance reputation and stakeholder trust. The research identifies key contextual moderators, including industry exposure, firm size, and home-country political alignment, that influence strategy effectiveness. Ultimately, the study contributes a comprehensive integrative framework for geopolitical risk management and offers actionable recommendations for executives seeking to build organizational resilience while capitalizing on opportunities arising from global shifts. As geopolitical competition intensifies, the ability to manage these risks strategically will increasingly determine long-term corporate success and sustainability in the international arena.

کلیدواژه ها:

Geopolitical risk ، tariffs ، sanctions ، political uncertainty ، risk management strategies ، supply chain resilience ، international business.