Design and Validation of a System Dynamics Model for Attracting and Leveraging Industrial Elites in Iran’s Industrial Production System

This paper designs and validates a system dynamics model to explain the mechanisms of attracting, retaining, and leveraging industrial elites in Iran’s industrial production system. Given the strategic role of industrial elites in developing a knowledge-based economy and improving industrial competitiveness, a range of policies and institutions have been established in recent years; however, a meaningful gap remains between the emerging capacity of industrial elites and their realised impact on industrial production. Based on the literature on human capital, elite migration, national innovation systems, and science and technology policy and relevant upstream policy documents, key variables and feedback relationships across higher education, elite support, industrial R&D units, industrial knowledge-based companies, the elite labour market, and the policy/institutional environment were identified and formalised as causal-loop and stock and flow structures and implemented in Vensim. Using official time-series data for ۲۰۱۲–۲۰۲۱ (۱۳۹۱–۱۴۰۰), the model was calibrated and evaluated using structural tests (e.g., boundary adequacy and dimensional consistency) and behavioural tests (historical behaviour reproduction, extreme-condition tests, and sensitivity tests). The results indicate that the proposed model reproduces the historical trends of key variables with acceptable accuracy and exhibits robust behaviour under reasonable parameter changes. The model can serve as a policy laboratory for ex ante evaluation of interventions to increase industrial absorption capacity, strengthen industrial R&D, and reduce persistent elite outflows.

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">Keywords System dynamics ، industrial elites ، Industrial R& D ، industrial knowledge-based companies ، Elite migration