Development an Analytical Model of Accidents using Geographically Weighted Modeling (Case Study: City of Zanjan)

Traffic accidents represent one of the major global challenges affecting public safety, have become a serious threat to public health, resulting in substantial human and financial losses for various countries each year. This study examines the spatial distribution of traffic accidents in the city of Zanjan. In this research, the spatial distribution pattern of accidents was examined using the Moran's I spatial autocorrelation method and spatial statistical analyses in a GIS environment. For this purpose, ten effective parameters were analyzed, including the type of road artery, speed limit, one-way roads, road width, population density, density of land uses, traffic intersection density, density of transportation axes, density of commercial and service land uses, and trip attraction intensity as influential factors in the occurrence of accidents. The results showed that these factors have a direct and significant relationship with road accidents in the city of Zanjan. The most significant impacts, in order, were from the parameters of one-way roads, road width, population density, density of land uses, intersection density, and trip attraction intensity. Additionally, the spatial pattern of accidents was generally clustered, and hazardous points were clearly identifiable. Based on these findings, recommendations for improving traffic safety in Zanjan have been provided, including geometric modifications of intersections, management of commercial and service land uses, adjustment of speed limits on busy streets, enhancement of traffic management, and implementation of immediate safety measures at accident-prone locations. This study can guide decision-making and planning to reduce accidents and improve urban safety in Zanjan.

کلیدواژه ها:

Accident Modeling ، Geographically Weighted Modeling ، Geographic information systems