An Optimized Operational Model for the Development of Micromobility Systems in Metropolitan Areas (Case Study: Tehran)

Micromobility has emerged as a flexible, low-emission alternative for short urban trips, attracting growing interest in densely populated cities. This study evaluates the financial viability of implementing a shared micromobility network in Tehran from the perspective of a private or institutional investor. Employing a discounted cash flow (DCF) model over a ۲۰۲۴–۲۰۲۹ evaluation horizon, the analysis considers direct monetary flows, including capital expenditures (CAPEX), operating expenditures (OPEX), and revenues generated through trip-based fare structures. Demand is disaggregated by trip-duration categories and monetized using calibrated fare multipliers aligned with duration-sensitive usage patterns. A real discount rate of ۴۶.۵% is applied to reflect local economic conditions and investment risk. The results indicate that the system operates below cost-recovery levels during the initial deployment years, but reaches operational breakeven in ۲۰۲۶, after which annual revenues exceed annual costs. By ۲۰۲۹, the model estimates total annual revenue of ۴۹,۲۷۹,۴۸۱ million rials and total annual costs of ۵,۰۶۰,۷۶۶ million rials, resulting in a final-year net operating surplus of ۴۴,۲۱۸,۷۱۵ million rials, equivalent to approximately ۴۴.۲۲ trillion rials. These findings suggest that, under the assumed demand, pricing, and cost conditions, shared micromobility can become financially viable after the initial capital-intensive phase. The study provides a replicable framework for evaluating clean transport investments in emerging urban contexts characterized by inflation, demand uncertainty, and high operational risk.

کلیدواژه ها:

Micromobility Infrastructure ، Urban Transport Investment ، Financial Feasibility Analysis ، Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Modelling ، Electric Bicycle Sharing ، Operating and Capital Expenditures (CAPEX & OPEX)