Competing models of AI statecraft: Techno-nationalism, governance divergence, and the India-China rivalry in the emerging global AI order, ۲۰۲۰-۲۰۲۶

Background: Artificial intelligence has emerged as a general-purpose technology reshaping economic competitiveness, military capability, public administration, and normative order. Between ۲۰۲۰ and ۲۰۲۶, the intensifying competition between India and China has become a defining feature of this global transformation.Aims: This article argues that the India-China AI rivalry transcends mere technical metrics, such as research output or compute capacity, to represent a clash between contrasting models of AI statecraft.Methodology: Drawing on techno-nationalism, neo-realism, and policy-diffusion theory, this study demonstrates that while both nations treat AI as a strategic asset, they organize its development through fundamentally distinct institutional architectures and normative commitments.Findings: China’s approach is characterized by centralized coordination, long-horizon industrial policy, civil-military fusion, and the systematic construction of a sovereign AI ecosystem spanning data, standards, and deployment. Conversely, India’s model, articulated through frameworks like #AIForAll and the IndiaAI Mission, prioritizes inclusive innovation, ethical accountability, digital public infrastructure, and developmental applications. China’s quantitative leadership in scale and infrastructure is tempered by concerns regarding international trust and regulatory legitimacy. Meanwhile, India’s strengths in human capital and ethical framing remain constrained by fragmentation and commercialization gaps. The rivalry carries implications far beyond bilateral relations: it shapes the menu of governance models available to the Global South and influences the evolution of global AI norms, standards, and technological autonomy.Conclusion: By situating this competition within a comparative institutional analysis, the article contributes to scholarship on emerging-technology geopolitics, sovereign AI, and the politics of digital infrastructure in the Indo-Pacific.

کلیدواژه ها:

AI governance models ، India-China AI rivalry ، policy diffusion ، sovereign AI ، techno-nationalism