Mathematical modeling and control strategies for meningitis transmission

Meningitis is one of the world’s most alarming infectious diseases, characterized by rapid progression, high fatality, and severe long-term complications. Despite advances in vaccination and surveillance, recurrent epidemics—especially across Africa’s “meningitis belt”—continue to threaten millions. This study introduces a novel compartmental model, SEAIV HRQ, integrating both medical and behavioral aspects of meningitis dynamics. The model divides the population into eight classes, incorporating vaccination and voluntary quarantine to reflect realistic public health conditions. Three time-dependent controls are applied to reduce transmission from asymptomatic and symptomatic individuals and to enhance awareness and treatment adherence. Using Pontryagin’s Maximum Principle, we determine optimal strategies that minimize infection prevalence, hospitalization, and intervention costs. Numerical simulations show that combined preventive, treatment, and awareness measures substantially reduce infection peaks and accelerate recovery. This framework extends classical models and supports the WHO’s “Defeating Meningitis by ۲۰۳۰” roadmap, offering practical insights for designing cost-effective and sustainable control strategies in resource-limited health systems.

کلیدواژه ها:

Meningitis ، Pontryagin&rsquo ، s maximum principle ، Matlab ، Bacterial meningitis