Temporal Trends in Tuberculosis Prevalence and Burden in Iran, ۱۹۹۲–۲۰۲۲: A ۳۰-Year Analysis

Background: Tuberculosis (TB) remains one of the most significant public health challenges, and monitoring its long-term trends is essential for evaluating the effectiveness of disease control programs. This study aimed to assess the ۳۰-year trend of TB prevalence and disease burden in Iran from ۱۹۹۴ to ۲۰۲۳. Methods: This ecological descriptive study was conducted using data from the Global Burden of Disease study. Indicators of TB prevalence and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) in Iran, the Eastern Mediterranean Region, and globally were extracted and analyzed as age-standardized rates per ۱۰۰,۰۰۰ population. Temporal trends were assessed using the Joinpoint regression model and the average annual percent change (AAPC), with a significance level set at ۰.۰۵. Results: The findings indicated a decreasing trend in both DALYs and TB prevalence, with AAPCs of −۴.۵۰ and −۰.۳۹, respectively (P <۰.۰۰۱). In subgroups, both DALYs and prevalence of drug-susceptible TB showed declining trends, whereas multidrug-resistant TB and extensively drug-resistant TB demonstrated increasing trends (P <۰.۰۰۱). Conclusion: Although the overall burden of TB in Iran has declined over the past three decades, the rising trend of drug-resistant forms highlights the continued need for strengthened early detection, surveillance of drug resistance, and targeted treatment strategies.     Keywords: Disability-adjusted life years, Global Burden of Disease, Prevalence, Tuberculosis, Iran Acknowledgments: The authors would like to express their gratitude to the Vice-Chancellor for Research and Technology at Jahrom University of Medical Sciences for their intellectual and administrative support. Conflict of Interest: The authors declare that they have no conflicts of interest regarding the conduct of this study. Availability of Data and Materials: The data used in this study are publicly available through the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) database. Consent for Publication: Not applicable. Ethics Approval and Consent to Participate: This study was conducted in accordance with the principles of the Declaration of Helsinki. The research protocol was approved by the Ethics Committee of Jahrom University of Medical Sciences (Approval Code: IR.JUMS.REC.۱۴۰۳.۱۰۹). Financial Disclosure: The authors declare that they did not receive any financial support from any institution for the conduct of this study. Author Contributions: Both authors contributed equally to all stages of the study and to the writing of the manuscript.

کلیدواژه ها:

Disability-adjusted life years ، Global Burden of Disease ، Prevalence ، Tuberculosis ، Iran ، سالهای عمر تطبیق شده بر اساس ناتوانی ، بار جهانی بیماریها ، شیوع ، سل ، ایران