Assessing the Effects of Economic Structural Changes and Trade Openness on Ecological Sustainability: The Case of the MENA Region

This study examines whether the structural transformations in the economy and trade exert significant spatial direct and spillover effects on the ecological footprint across MENA countries from ۲۰۰۱ to ۲۰۲۱. For this purpose, we used Moran’s “I test” and applied fixed-effect Spatial Durbin Model (SDM). To ensure the findings, we checked the robustness of our results across alternative spatial models and other matrices. The results showed that there was significant positive spatial dependence in ecological footprints, indicating that a country’s ecological footprint was influenced by those of its neighbors. We find economic structural changes played an important role in reducing the ecological footprints, both directly and through spillover effects. Similarly, trade openness had a significantly negative impact on the ecological footprint; however, the spillover effect was not significant. The results of robustness checks confirmed the environmental impact of structural economic changes, and trade openness were robust and not driven by model-specific assumptions. These findings underscore the need for MENA governments to prioritize economic restructuring and promote the adoption of environmentally friendly technologies through strategic trade policies and reduced trade barriers.

کلیدواژه ها:

Ecological footprint ، Spatial dependence ، Spatial Durbin model