An Intelligent Socio-Technical Framework for Urban Resilience ‎to Natural Hazards Under Climate Change

Urban areas are increasingly exposed to complex and interconnected risks resulting from ‎natural hazards, climate change, infrastructure dependencies, population concentration, and ‎rapid technological transformation. These risks challenge conventional approaches to urban ‎disaster management, which often examine infrastructure, institutional preparedness, social ‎capacity, and digital technologies as separate domains. This study proposes an integrated ‎socio-technical framework for understanding urban resilience by examining the relationships ‎among climate-related conditions, critical infrastructure, social capital, crisis management ‎capacity, urban intelligence, and urban resilience. A quantitative simulation-based research ‎design was employed to demonstrate the proposed analytical framework. The simulated ‎dataset consisted of ۴۰۰ observations and ۳۰ measurement items representing six latent ‎constructs, with five indicators assigned to each construct. The measurement model was ‎evaluated using Cronbach's alpha, composite reliability, and average variance extracted. The ‎structural model was subsequently examined using standardized path coefficients and ‎explained variance. The results indicate satisfactory internal consistency and convergent ‎validity across all constructs. The structural model explains ۶۰.۶% of the variance in urban ‎resilience. Crisis management capacity demonstrates the strongest modeled relationship with ‎urban resilience (β = ۰.۳۲۲, t = ۷.۳۴۲), followed by urban intelligence (β = ۰.۱۹۴, t = ۴.۹۰۲), ‎critical infrastructure (β = ۰.۱۹۰, t = ۴.۵۲۳), social capital (β = ۰.۱۶۷, t = ۴.۴۳۸), and climate-‎related conditions (β = ۰.۱۶۰, t = ۴.۴۳۶). All five hypothesized relationships are supported ‎within the simulated analytical structure. The findings suggest that urban resilience should be ‎approached as an integrated socio-technical capability rather than as a function of ‎infrastructure or technology alone. In particular, organizational crisis management capacity ‎appears to provide an important mechanism through which technological, infrastructural, ‎social, and environmental resources may contribute to resilience. Because the dataset is ‎simulated, the numerical findings are methodological demonstrations and cannot be ‎generalized to real populations. Future research should validate the framework using ethically ‎collected empirical data, objective infrastructure indicators, longitudinal observations, and ‎multi-stakeholder samples.‎

کلیدواژه ها:

Urban resilience ، climate change ، natural hazards ، critical infrastructure ، social capital ، crisis ‎management ، urban intelligence ، smart cities ، disaster risk reduction ، socio-technical systems.‎