Risk-Aware Digital Twin-Enabled Crew Change Optimization for Maritime Workforce Rotation under Operational Disruption

Crew change planning remains one of the most disruption-sensitive processes in maritime shipping. A single failed replacement can extend onboard service time, delay vessel operations, increase travel and accommodation costs, and expose shipping companies to fatigue, welfare, and compliance risks. Existing maritime crew scheduling studies have mainly addressed deterministic assignment or rescheduling problems, while limited attention has been paid to real-time disruption exposure during crew rotation. This study develops a risk-aware digital twin-enabled optimization model for maritime crew change planning under operational uncertainty. The model represents seafarers, vessels, joining ports, relief windows, certificate status, documentation readiness, medical availability, travel feasibility, and port-call uncertainty as continuously updated decision attributes. A mixed-integer optimization formulation is developed to minimize direct crew change cost, disruption risk, expected relief delay, and compliance exposure. Five disruption sources are incorporated into the risk structure: travel delay, documentation uncertainty, medical unavailability, port-call instability, and qualification mismatch. A ۳۰-day computational scenario involving ۴ vessels, ۸ relief requirements, ۱۲ candidate replacements, and ۵ joining ports is used to evaluate the model against a conventional least-cost assignment strategy. The results show that the risk-aware model increases direct crew change cost by ۱۰.۹%, from ۲۸,۴۰۰ to ۳۱,۵۰۰, but reduces average disruption risk by ۴۳.۶%, from ۰.۴۰۱ to ۰.۲۲۶, and eliminates ۱۲ days of expected relief delay. Sensitivity analysis further shows that moderate risk weighting is sufficient to remove the most fragile assignments without requiring excessive reserve staffing. The study contributes a compact decision-grade model that integrates workforce rotation, disruption exposure, and digital synchronization for reliable maritime crew change planning.

کلیدواژه ها:

Maritime crew change ، Crew rotation planning ، Digital twin ، Risk-aware optimization ، Workforce scheduling ، Shipping operations ، Crew change disruption ، Maritime resilience