A Data-Driven Multilayer Network Approach to Maritime Logistics Resilience under Complex Disruption Scenarios

Maritime logistics systems are increasingly shaped by compound disruptions arising from systemic constraints and global shocks, exposing the limitations of conventional single-layer analytical models. This study develops a data-driven multilayer network framework to quantitatively assess resilience under such complex and uncertain conditions. The framework integrates three interdependent layers: the physical transportation network of ports and shipping routes, the economic interaction network of trade flows and cargo dependencies, and a constraint layer capturing regulatory barriers, operational limitations, and access restrictions. A comprehensive dataset covering the period ۲۰۱۵–۲۰۲۵ is employed, combining AIS-based vessel movement data, global port connectivity indices, and bilateral trade flows, together with a composite constraint intensity index reflecting variations in external and operational restrictions. The multilayer structure explicitly captures cross-layer interdependencies, while key network topology metrics, including weighted degree centrality, betweenness centrality, and interlayer coupling strength, are embedded within a disruption propagation model to simulate cascading failures. The results reveal that resilience is highly uneven and concentrated within a limited number of structurally critical nodes. Ports with high interlayer centrality function both as essential connectivity hubs and as major channels for systemic risk amplification. Under intensified constraint conditions, the network exhibits nonlinear dynamics, including a phase transition beyond a critical disruption threshold, where localized limitations trigger disproportionate global impacts. Simulation outcomes indicate that adaptive rerouting and trade diversification can improve resilience by up to ۲۷%, although their effectiveness depends strongly on network position and structural dependency. The proposed framework provides a rigorous basis for analyzing disruption propagation across interconnected layers, offering a more realistic and system-oriented representation of maritime logistics resilience in an increasingly complex global environment.

کلیدواژه ها:

Maritime logistics resilience ، Multilayer network modelling ، Constraint-driven disruptions ، Supply chain resilience ، Cascading failure dynamics ، Network robustness ، Interlayer coupling ، Complex system analysis