An Empirical Analysis of the Impact of E-Government Development on Total Factor Productivity in Iran's Public Sector: Evidence from Dynamic Econometric Models

This study provides an empirical analysis of the impact of e-government development on Total Factor Productivity (TFP) in Iran's public sector. Given the dynamic nature of productivity processes and the potential for endogeneity in static models, this research employs time-series data from ۲۰۰۵ to ۲۰۲۴ and the dynamic Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach. The findings indicate that the variables exhibit a mixture of I(۰) and I(۱) integration orders. The estimation results reveal that e-government development has a significant and positive long-run impact (at the ۹۹% confidence level) on public sector TFP; specifically, a ۱% improvement in the E-Government Development Index leads to a ۰.۳۴۲% increase in TFP, ceteris paribus. Furthermore, the Error Correction Term coefficient (-۰.۴۵۸) indicates that approximately ۴۵.۸% of short-run deviations from the equilibrium path are adjusted annually. Conversely, the government size variable exhibits a negative and significant effect on productivity. The study concludes that the transition to digital governance alone is insufficient and must be coupled with structural streamlining and the elimination of redundant bureaucratic layers to prevent crowding-out effects on institutional efficiency.

کلیدواژه ها:

Total Factor Productivity (TFP) ، E-Government Development ، ARDL Bounds Testing ، Iran's Public Sector ، Error Correction Term.