Evaluation of the Impacts of Extreme Temperature Trends on Adverse Health Outcomes in Tehran City, Iran

Background: Climate change and its consequences affect all aspects of human life, and with their escalation, short-term and long-term impacts are also intensified. One of the most important issues affected by climate change is public health. Tehran (capital city of Iran) as a densely populated metropolis with a semi-arid climate is located at the tip of the arrow, facing the risks caused by climate change. Materials and Methods: This study analyzed ERA۵ (fifth generation the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts [ECMWF]) reanalysis data (۱۹۸۸-۲۰۲۲), validated using statistical indices. Trends were evaluated with the non-parametric Mann-Kendall test. Thermal waves are assessed by warm spell duration index (WSDI) and cold spell duration index (CSDI). The correlations between temperature, hospital visits, and population (۲۰۱۴-۲۰۲۲) were also examined. Results: Tehran experienced a significant long-term temperature increase over ۳۴ years, particularly in spring, winter, and July. Heatwave frequency increased, while cold waves decreased. Average temperatures during extreme events also rose. Temperature and hospital visits showed a ۰.۶۱ correlation rate. Population, hospital visits, and annual average temperature increased by ۴.۹۸%, ۱۶.۴۲%, and ۲.۱۱%, respectively. Conclusion: Hotter conditions and rising temperatures directly influence public health. The disproportionate growth in disease occurrence compared to population highlights the critical impact of extreme temperature events on hospital visit rates, emphasizing the escalating health burden from observed climate change. This research confirms a shift towards hotter conditions and a rising temperature trend in Tehran. The significant correlation between temperature and hospital visits, alongside disproportionate disease growth, strongly suggests that extreme temperature events and rising temperatures are key drivers for increased hospital visit.

کلیدواژه ها:

Health ، Global warming ، Climate change ، Heat wave