Mapping Agricultural Drought Hazard in Iran

The primary objective of this study was to develop a spatially explicit Agricultural Drought Hazard (ADH) map for Iran by integrating precipitation and soil moisture data. For this purpose, two key datasets spanning ۳۰ years (۱۹۸۷-۲۰۱۶) were utilized: Monthly precipitation from ۶۳ synoptic stations (Iran’s Meteorological Organization) and gridded monthly soil moisture data from the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) with a spatial resolution of ۰.۵°×۰.۵°. These were transformed into the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Standardized Soil Moisture Index (SSMI), respectively. A core quantitative finding was the regionally distinct correlation between SPI and SSMI: the strongest positive correlations were observed in Iran’s expansive dry climates (southern and eastern halves), while significantly weaker correlations characterized the more humid northern and western halves. This indicates a more rapid and direct propagation of meteorological drought to agricultural drought in arid zones. These standardized indices were then integrated to construct Iran’s ADH map. This map quantitatively classifies the central, southern, and southeastern regions as experiencing ‘high’ and ‘very high’ agricultural drought hazard. These findings provide a critical, data-driven tool for national and regional policymakers, offering improved insights for targeted drought mitigation and water resource management.

کلیدواژه ها:

Drought mitigation ، National policymakers ، Precipitation ، soil moisture