Explaining evapotranspiration dynamics via CNN-LSTM and temporal SHAP: a multi-step forecasting approach across diverse climates

Reliable multi-step-ahead forecasting of reference evapotranspiration (ETo) is critical for proactive water resource management, yet understanding the temporal memory of hydrological systems remains a challenge for black-box deep learning models. This study presents a novel, interpretable forecasting framework integrating temporal SHapley additive explanations (SHAP) with advanced recurrent neural networks to predict daily ETo up to ۷ days in advance across three contrasting climatic zones in Iran; Birjand (arid), Mashhad (semi-arid), and Gorgan (humid). By benchmarking long short-term memory (LSTM), bidirectional LSTM (BiLSTM), and CNN-LSTM architectures, it is demonstrated that model complexity does not always guarantee superiority; the standard LSTM proved remarkably robust, achieving high short-term accuracy (R² > ۰.۹۳ for ۱-day forecast) in arid regions. However, a distinct humid-climate penalty was observed, with forecast accuracy degrading more rapidly in Gorgan due to stochastic cloud dynamics. The application of temporal SHAP revealed climate-specific memory effects: in arid zones, wind speed exhibited a persistent influence extending back ۵ days, acting as a long-term driver of evaporative demand, whereas humid regions were governed by short-term radiative pulses. Furthermore, analysis of extreme events and drought propagation showed that while the model successfully captures heatwave-driven peaks, its reliability decreases under severe evaporative stress (standardized ETo anomaly > ۲). Cross-spatial generalization tests confirmed that models trained on arid data transfer effectively to humid regions (R² = ۰.۹۵), but the reverse transfer fails to capture extreme advective forcing. This study provides a transferable, physically interpretable blueprint for developing early warning systems in data-scarce regions.

کلیدواژه ها:

Climatic memory ، Explainable artificial intelligence ، Multi-step forecasting ، SHAP