Future Research of Sustainable Rural Planning based on Information and Communication Technology in East Azerbaijan Province

Purpose- Rapid advancements in Information and Communication Technology (ICT) present complex uncertainties for rural planning, with traditional methods often insufficient for navigating these ambiguities. This study aims to identify key drivers and plausible future scenarios for sustainable rural development based on ICT in East Azerbaijan Province, a region currently seeking to optimize its developmental position. Design/methodology/approach- This applied research utilizes a descriptive-analytical method based on a future study approach. Data were collected through citation review and a researcher-made questionnaire completed by a panel of ۳۱ experts. Structural analysis was performed using a ۲۳×۲۳ cross-impact matrix (MICMAC software) to identify key drivers, followed by scenario analysis (Scenario Wizard) to determine consistent future situations for a ۱۰-year horizon (۲۰۳۳). Finding- The analysis of the dispersion plane indicates that the system is unstable. Out of ۲۳ initial variables, ۷ key drivers were identified as the most critical factors affecting the system. The variable "execution of intra-village research with the cooperation of village residents to adapt ICT-based development principles to regional conditions" ranked first in terms of direct and indirect influence. Based on these drivers, ۲۱ possible situations were designed. Ultimately, ۸ scenarios with high consistency were extracted. he results suggest that the most consistent and favorable scenarios for the horizon of ۲۰۳۳ rely on "Creating sites related to villagers' affairs with content adapted to local culture" and "Directing extension programs to explain the necessity of ICT development." These findings provide a strategic roadmap for policymakers to transition from static planning to dynamic, future-oriented rural development. Research limitations/implications- The study is limited to East Azerbaijan Province and relies on expert panel judgments, which may introduce subjective bias. Future research could expand the geographical scope and incorporate quantitative indicators for validation. Originality/value- This study contributes to the literature by applying a foresight approach to ICT-based rural planning in Iran, providing a strategic roadmap for policymakers to transition from static planning to dynamic, future-oriented rural development.

کلیدواژه ها:

future study ، Rural Planning ، Sustainable development ، ICT ، East Azerbaijan