Rationalizing managerial judgment: The effectiveness of collective decision-making in bias reduction

KGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: This study explores the influence of collective decision-making on mitigating key cognitive biases—namely, overconfidence, optimism, and anchoring effects—among managers in Iranian state-run organizations. Cognitive biases are systematic errors in thinking that impair judgment and decision quality, often leading to suboptimal outcomes in organizational contexts. Given the high stakes and complexity of managerial decisions in public sector settings, identifying mechanisms to reduce such biases is both practically and theoretically significant. The primary objective of this research is to determine whether collective decision-making, characterized by collaborative deliberation and shared responsibility, can serve as an effective tool for bias reduction.METHODS: A quantitative survey methodology was employed, utilizing a structured Likert-scale questionnaire distributed among ۱۵۲ managers at different hierarchical levels in governmental institutions. The instrument's internal consistency was verified with a Cronbach's alpha of ۰.۸۵۷, indicating high reliability. Data analysis included descriptive statistics, mean comparisons against scale midpoints, and significance testing using inferential methods.FINDINGS: Findings revealed that collective decision-making significantly reduced the levels of overconfidence, unrealistic optimism, and anchoring bias among participants (p < ۰.۰۵). These results suggest that involving multiple perspectives in decision processes enhances rationality by exposing individual assumptions to group scrutiny, thus improving the quality and accuracy of managerial judgments.CONCLUSION: The implications of this study are particularly relevant for organizational leadership and policy-making in public institutions. Encouraging collective decision-making not only minimizes the costs associated with biased decisions but also fosters a culture of collaboration, accountability, and shared learning. This approach can reduce psychological stress related to decision-making responsibilities and improve overall organizational performance. By highlighting the cognitive benefits of group-based decision strategies, the study contributes to the broader literature on decision science, organizational behavior, and public management, offering practical insights for managerial training and institutional reform

کلیدواژه ها:

Collective decision-making ، Cognitive Bias ، Overconfidence ، Optimism ، Anchoring effect.