A Dynamic Nonlinear Model Based on Economic Adjustment Coefficients for Optimizing Floating Share in Gold Mines under Price Volatility

This study presents a dynamic nonlinear model for optimizing the floating-share in gold mining operations under price volatility. The model integrates three economic adjustment coefficients—base coefficient (a), adjustment power (p), and partial correction coefficient (d)—which collectively enable automatic responses and dynamic adaptation to fluctuations in gold prices. Sensitivity analysis reveals that the parameter (p) is the principal determinant of the curvature and growth rate of the floating-share function, whereas the parameters (a) and (d) predominantly influence the initial slope and baseline position of the function. Regarding the amount of the share premium in Iranian gold mining contracts, it is a fixed coefficient, and similarly, in the world, share premiums either have a fixed amount and or increase in a stepwise manner. Therefore, the presented nonlinear model was validated using monthly data on the price of ۲۴-karat gold over the past ۴۲ months. Then, seven scenarios were defined to determine the value of the floating-share based on the needs assessment and mining contracts. then, key indicators including mean floating-share price, standard deviation, risk, conservative profit of the mine owner, coefficient of variation (CV), profit percentage relative to the best scenario, and the composite decision-making index (CI)— were used to evaluate and compare the results of the seven scenarios. The results showed that scenario number ۴, which aims to start with a floating-share price that is always at least ۱۰ % higher than the minimum suggested share price and, in ۱۰ % of cases, gives people who earn their final share price, was selected as the optimal scenario with the highest profitability and the lowest average risk. Overall, the proposed model provides a quantitative, adaptive, and efficient framework for financial decision-making, joint venture contract design, and risk assessment in gold mining operations. Its implementation can support more informed and resilient strategic decisions in the face of market volatility.

کلیدواژه ها:

dynamic model ، floating share ، gold price volatility ، economic adjustment coefficients ، financial sustainability