The Paradox of Compensatory Policies: A Systems Analysis of Iran’s Electricity Deficit Focusing on Feedback Loops and the Water-Energy-Food Nexus

The electricity deficit in Iran, predominantly managed through interventionist measures such as demand-side management and planned outages, has become a structural challenge for the national economy. Adopting a systems analysis approach, this study investigates how these short-term interventions fail to address the root causes and, instead, exacerbate the crisis in the long run by creating and reinforcing vicious feedback loops. Using a qualitative system dynamics modelling methodology validated by an expert panel, this research identifies and analyzes several detrimental feedback mechanisms. Findings indicate that power outages in the industrial sector lead to production stagnation, diminishing the investment capacity for energy efficiency and eroding social capital. In the agricultural sector, these imbalances threaten food security and inadvertently reignite urban electricity demand by intensifying the “Urban Heat Island” effect. Furthermore, the Water-Energy (WE) Nexus analysis reveals how sectoral policies—such as promoting evaporative coolers in water-scarce regions—can aggravate the energy crisis when viewed through an integrated lens. The results suggest that current strategies exemplify the “Fixes that Fail” archetype, wherein short-term solutions undermine the system’s fundamental capacity to solve the problem. Ultimately, this paper emphasizes the need to shift from reactive crisis management to systemic, integrated planning focused on the Water-Energy-Food Nexus to achieve long-term sustainability.

کلیدواژه ها:

Electricity Deficit ، System dynamics ، Fixes that Fail Archetype ، Feedback Loops ، Water-Energy-Food Nexus ، Energy Policy