Integrated Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard and Spectral Energy Analysis of the Makran Subduction Zone: Deriving Hydrodynamic Design Envelopes for Critical Marine Infrastructure near the Strait of Hormuz

The strategic development of energy infrastructure along the Makran Subduction Zone (MSZ), particularly the Kooh Mobarak Terminal near the Strait of Hormuz, demands a rigorous transition from deterministic assessments to risk-informed frameworks. While the eastern MSZ has a well-documented seismic history, the western segment presents a critical latent threat due to strong inter-seismic coupling. This study introduces an integrated framework combining Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment (PTHA) with advanced time-frequency analysis to quantify multi-dimensional risks. Building upon high-resolution hydrodynamic simulations, site-specific "Hydrodynamic Design Envelopes" were derived to explicitly correlate wave height and current velocity. Results indicate that for the ۹۷۵-year Maximum Credible Earthquake, the nearshore breakwater faces extreme compound loads, with wave heights approaching ۳.۰ m and velocities exceeding ۲.۳ m/s, necessitating a shift to hydrodynamic drag-based design criteria. Furthermore, spectral characterization using Welch’s method and Continuous Wavelet Transform (CWT) identifies dominant energy bands at ۲۴–۳۰ and ~۶۴ minutes, providing vital geometric constraints to avoid destructive harbor resonance. Additionally, time-frequency analysis reveals a significant lag between initial arrival and peak energy flux, demonstrating that hazardous agitation persists for over ۴ hours. These findings underscore the imperative of adopting a performance-based design philosophy that accounts for probabilistic exceedance, resonance avoidance, and extended operational exclusion windows.

کلیدواژه ها:

Makran Subduction Zone ، Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment (PTHA) ، Hydrodynamic Design Envelopes ، Time-Frequency Analysis ، Strait of Hormuz