The Asymmetric Impact of Oil Price Shocks on Economic Growth in OPEC Member Countries: Application of a Panel Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (Panel NARDL) Model

This study examines the short-and long-run asymmetric effects of oil price shocks on economic growth in an oil-exporting economy using a nonlinear econometric framework. Employing a Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) model, with annual panel data (۱۹۹۰–۲۰۲۲ ), the analysis decomposes oil price movements into positive and negative partial sums to capture potential asymmetries in both the short and long run, while controlling for standard growth determinants including physical capital, labor force, energy consumption, trade openness, and inflation to mitigate omitted variable bias. The results reveal a counterintuitive short-run asymmetry: positive oil price shocks exert a statistically significant negative effect on economic growth, whereas negative oil price shocks generate a positive short-run growth response. We interpret this pattern through two interrelated transmission mechanisms grounded in macroeconomic theory. First, positive oil shocks may intensify Dutch disease dynamics by appreciating the real exchange rate, reallocating resources toward non-tradable sectors, and weakening productivity in tradable industries. Second, negative oil shocks can trigger corrective adjustments, including fiscal consolidation, improved resource allocation, and reduced rent-seeking behavior, thereby mitigating distortions accumulated during oil booms. In this framework, adverse oil shocks may temporarily stimulate efficiency-enhancing reallocations and productivity improvements, particularly in economies previously characterized by oil-driven misallocation. In the long run, however, oil price increases remain growth-enhancing, reflecting the dominant income and investment channels associated with sustained oil revenue expansion.These findings suggest that the growth effects of oil price shocks depend not only on their direction but also on structural characteristics and policy responses within oil-exporting economies.

کلیدواژه ها:

Oil Shock ، Asymmetric ، Economic Growth ، NARDL ، panel data