Impact of Climate Change on Meteorological Parameters Using the CMIP۶ Model

Human society and the environment face significant challenges due to climate change. Climate change is predicted to cause an increase in global surface temperatures. These changes do not occur uniformly across the globe, making it necessary to examine them at a regional level. Investigating and evaluating these changes in each region is essential for a more accurate understanding of future challenges and related planning. Therefore, this research investigates the impact of climate change on meteorological parameters in the Khorramabad plain, located in Lorestan province, using the CanESM۲.۰ climate prediction model, in accordance with the CMIP۶ sixth assessment report. The study utilizes temperature and precipitation data recorded from ۲۰۰۲ to ۲۰۲۲. Subsequently, based on designed emission scenarios—including the optimistic SSP۱-۲.۶, the intermediate SSP۲-۴.۵, and the pessimistic SSP۵-۸.۵ scenarios—the future atmospheric conditions for a twenty-year period (۲۰۲۲-۲۰۴۲) were predicted. The results indicate that CanESM۲.۰ performs well in simulating temperature parameters but has less capability in simulating precipitation. The results also show that the simulated temperature under the SSP۱-۲.۶ emission scenario increases in all months during the future period (۲۰۲۲-۲۰۴۲) compared to the baseline period. The average precipitation in the future period does not show a specific pattern for the three models used. Overall, the results of this research can contribute to future water resource management, the creation of effective programs to combat climate change, and provide a basis for informed decision-making and appropriate planning.

کلیدواژه ها:

Climate change ، Khorramabad ، Simulation ، General Circulation Model