Long-Term Sustainability of Iran’s Social Security Fund:

This paper examines the long-term sustainability of Iran’s Social Security Organization (ISSO) using official annual statistics for ۱۳۴۰-۱۴۰۳ (۱۹۶۱-۲۰۲۴). Unlike earlier conceptual drafts, this version constructs a machine-readable core dataset from the source report for three central pension-system indicators: insurance coverage, insurance penetration, and the support ratio. The empirical analysis combines descriptive statistics, correlation analysis, linear time-trend estimation, stationarity diagnostics, Chow-type structural break tests, and ARIMA forecasting. The results show a sharp duality in the development of the system: insurance coverage rose from ۵.۵۸ percent in ۱۳۴۰ to ۵۶.۴۷ percent in ۱۴۰۳, and insurance penetration rose from ۴.۷۳ percent to ۶۸.۰۰ percent, while the support ratio declined from ۲۵.۲۸ contributors per pension file to ۳.۸۰. The estimated annual linear decline in the support ratio is -۰.۳۰۵ contributors per year (p < ۰.۰۰۱), while coverage and penetration increased by approximately ۰.۸۶۸ and ۱.۰۳۱ percentage points per year, respectively. Stationarity tests indicate that the main series are non-stationary in levels, supporting the interpretation that these are structural historical trends rather than short-run fluctuations. Structural-break tests are significant around major institutional and demographic periods, including ۱۳۵۷, ۱۳۶۵, ۱۳۸۳, and ۱۳۹۰. ARIMA forecasting indicates that, under the observed historical pattern, the support ratio remains at a critically low level rather than reverting toward historical norms. The paper concludes that Iran’s social security system has achieved substantial coverage expansion but at the cost of a severe demographic-financial imbalance, requiring integrated pension, labor-market, actuarial, and healthcare reform. Keywords: Pension sustainability; social security; support ratio; insurance penetration; demographic transition; welfare economics.

کلیدواژه ها:

Pension sustainability ، social security ، support ratio ، insurance penetration ، demographic transition ، welfare economics