Two-stage multi-objective technology portfolio planning under resource constraints (case study: Iranian technology development fund)

This study proposes a novel two-stage multi-objective framework for optimal technology portfolio planning and resource allocation under constraints, specifically for Technology Development Funds (TDFs). The integrated methodology combines the Analytic Network Process (ANP) for prioritizing strategic technology fields with a multi-period Mixed-Integer Linear Programming (MILP) model, solved using a Revised Multi-Choice Goal Programming (RMCGP) approach. The model’s objectives are to maximize technological export potential, maximize international technological cooperation, and minimize financial risk, while incorporating critical real-world mechanisms such as staged financing contingent on Technology Readiness Level (TRL) progress, loan moratorium, and repayment periods.The framework was validated through a real-world case study of an Iranian Technology Development Fund (ITDF), involving eight technology fields and up to ۳۰ projects per field. Key quantitative results demonstrate the model’s efficacy: by reducing the risk objective’s weight from ۰.۳ to ۰.۱, the number of approved projects increased over fivefold (from ۱۲ to ۶۵), and the total allocated resources surged nearly tenfold (from ۲۲.۲ million to ۲۱۷.۵ million). Sensitivity analysis revealed that fields with high export potential and collaboration capacity (e.g., Advanced Machinery) received the highest funding, while the staged financing mechanism successfully identified and terminated ۲۵% of projects for insufficient technical progress after the first stage. The proposed model provides a robust decision-support tool for policymakers to enhance the strategic impact and financial efficiency of national technology investments.

کلیدواژه ها:

Technology prioritization ، Technology portfolio selection ، Staged financing ، Moratorium period ، Reinvestment strategy