Drivers of Land Commodification in the Western Urban–Rural Areas of Guilan Province, Northern Iran

Purpose- Land commodification is a process through which land shifts from being a productive, ecological, and social resource to a speculative asset and a vehicle for capital accumulation. Over the past decade, this process has intensified across the urban and rural zones of western Gilan Province, resulting in widespread villa construction, unregulated land-use conversions, increasing pressure on agricultural lands, spatial fragmentation, and the weakening of rural development. Despite the significance of this phenomenon, previous studies have rarely undertaken a systematic identification of the key driving forces shaping this complex dynamic.Design/methodology/approach- Addressing this gap, the present study first identified a broad set of factors influencing land commodification through semi-structured interviews with local experts, managers, and stakeholders (۱۴۵ participants). Following a screening and consensus-building process with ۱۰ spatial-planning specialists, ۵۹ final variables were extracted and subjected to structural analysis using a cross-impact matrix in MICMAC software. In addition, survey data from ۳۰۰ local residents were employed to capture lived experiences, validate the operational mechanisms, and complement the analytical outcomes.Finding- MICMAC results reveal that the absence of deterrent regulations and effective oversight mechanisms, weak agricultural support policies, fragmented land governance, the expansion of non-strategic tourism, and the increasing attractiveness of converting liquidity into land function as the principal driving variables. These drivers reinforce a self-amplifying cycle—characterized by rising land prices, intensified speculation, withdrawal of agricultural lands from production, and rapid villa development—that ultimately fosters spatial instability and undermines rural development.Originality/value– By mapping the causal structure and identifying the key drivers, this study provides an evidence-based foundation for targeted policy interventions aimed at regulating land commodification and enhancing spatial–rural sustainability in western Gilan.

کلیدواژه ها:

Key driving forces ، Land commodification ، Western Guilan region ، Land sales ، MICMAC