Climate Variability and Industrial Groundwater Abstraction in a Water-Stressed Petroleum Basin: Water Demand Dynamics in Lokichar Oil Production Wells, Kenya

The Lokichar Basin in Turkana, northern Kenya, is a semi-arid environment marked by pronounced rainfall variability and intense competition for water resources among domestic, livestock, and oil-driven industrial demands. This study assesses long-term rainfall trends (۱۹۸۱–۲۰۲۴), aquifer characteristics, groundwater levels, and demand dynamics to evaluate resource sustainability under oilfield development. Rainfall analyses using the Rainfall Anomaly Index, Standardized Precipitation Index, and Mann-Kendall tests show marked interannual variability, with significant increases in annual and October–December rainfall and evidence of non-stationarity in seasonal precipitation. Pumping tests from ۲۳ boreholes reveal heterogeneous transmissivity (۴.۱۷ × ۱۰⁻⁶–۶.۰۰ × ۱۰⁻³ m²/s) and specific yield (۰.۰۳۶–۰.۵۰۰), with high-yield zones concentrated in Nakukulas. Continuous monitoring indicates daily groundwater fluctuations linked to domestic abstraction, while simulations project extreme midday drawdowns exceeding ۶۰ m under full-scale oil production. Estimated natural recharge (۲۱.۸–۴۳.۶ Mm³ yr⁻¹) falls short of ۲۰۲۲ industrial demand (~۵۳.۰ Mm³ yr⁻¹), exposing a recharge–demand deficit. These findings highlight the vulnerability of Lokichar aquifer to over-abstraction and emphasize the need for integrated management, regulated abstraction, enhanced monitoring, and climate-responsive planning to secure water resources and support sustainable petroleum development in this fragile semi-arid basin.

کلیدواژه ها:

Groundwater levels ، Groundwater sustainability ، Industrial water demand ، Rainfall variability ، Recharge levels