Risk-Based Evaluation of Schedule Deviation in Construction Projects Using Monte Carlo Simulation and Sensitivity Analysis

Risk assessment and schedule deviation in construction projects are among the key challenges in project management. This study aims to analyze project schedule deviations from a risk-based perspective by modeling the activity network of a five-story office building based on activity data, resources, and predecessors. Activity durations were examined using probabilistic distributions and Monte Carlo simulation (۱۰,۰۰۰ iterations), and project completion time indicators were extracted. The results indicated that the mean total project duration is ۲۰۱ days with a standard deviation of ۱۲ days, with a probability of completing the project _x۰۰۰۶_۳ ۲۰۰ days of approximately ۴۵% and _x۰۰۰۶_۳ ۲۲۰ days of about ۹۰%. Sensitivity analysis identified that MEP installations, fa_x۰۰۰۰_e۷ade, and the first-floor structure have the greatest impact on the total project duration, and identifying potential critical activities allows management to focus on mitigating schedule-related risks. Additionally, the Risk Impact Factor indicated that risks related to human resources and technical issues have the most significant effect on the critical path. The findings demonstrate that using Monte Carlo simulation combined with sensitivity analysis is a powerful tool for risk-based management of construction project schedules and enables the design of preventive measures to reduce the likelihood of delays.

کلیدواژه ها:

Monte Carlo simulation ، schedule deviation ، project risk ، sensitivity analysis ، potential critical path ، construction management