Increasing the resiliency of megacities through better understanding of risks

Losses from a major earthquake in large cities and megacities will harm large populations both within and far beyond their boundaries. However, as demonstrated by past earthquakes (e.g., 2010 M8.8 Chile Earthquake versus M7.2 Haiti earthquake), human and economic impact depends greatly on the level of disaster preparedness and the resiliency of housing, infrastructure and services.Unfortunately, the planning and development of cities has only given scant consideration to the consequences of hazards due to a multitude of reasons. Scientific knowledge, even when available has not been systematically incorporated in the urban management policy-making and planning processes. For most part, the knowledge is fragmented, not properly packaged to be implemented by practitioners, and not correlated with urban management practices. At the same time, research and scientific approaches on how to prepare, respond and mitigate the effects of earthquakes to megacities have lagged behind impairing both policy and practice. Consequently, most cities, particularly in the developing world, are accumulating risk. A key element of progress concernsscientific characterization of future major hazards and the estimation of physical, socio-economic and institutional impacts.The risk estimates would support risk-sensitive developmental management and realistic preparedness planning. Dealing with urban risk requires a multi-disciplinary and multi-hazard approach (including human made and technological hazards). It should include new management tools such as visualization and simulation as well as exercises and drills.It also requires close collaboration with practitioners, city managers, and policy makers to share information, elaborate the scientific problems of urban management adequately, and develop practical tools and methods thatcan be mainstreamed in urban management practices to achieve more sustainable urban development and more resilient communities. Scientists should take the lead in terms of opening new multi-disciplinary and multi-hazards research frontiers and in engaging in broad consultations with urban managers and policy makers to reverse the current trend in urban risk accumulation.