Turkish Economy Currency Crisis and Depression: Different Start, Different Result

It is generally accepted in the literature that the currency crisis has negative macroeconomic consequences, such as bankruptcies, unemployment, and recession in economies. The economic consequences of different currency crisis severity will also be different. To reveal these differences, in our study, the severe currency crisis that puts the economies into recession is defined as the “Currency Depression”. It is extremely important that cases of currency crisis/depression can be predicted before they arise, and allow the economic authorities enough time to implement recovery policies to prevent or at least soften the negative effects of the case. In reference to this importance, Cases of currency crisis/depression occurring in the Turkish economy during ۱۹۹۲:۱-۲۰۲۰:۱۲ were created by the early warning system signal approach and analyzed in comparison with the ۲۰ set of indicators. The analysis concluded that these two cases had different initial conditions based on the indicators and their efficacy. The macroeconomic consequences of the currency crisis and currency depression are comparable; four-quarter observation period averages respectively, growth, (۱.۷%, -۳.۵۲%) unemployment (employment/employable population: down ۲.۱ and ۲.۸۵ points), inflation (۷.۳۷%, ۱۳.۳۸%), interest (۴۳.۸۹%, ۶۳.۰۴%) and real public domestic debt stock change, (۱۱.۵۴%, ۲۰.۷%). Thus, the judgment was reached that these two cases had different initial conditions and different outcomes.

کلیدواژه ها:

Currency Crises ، early warning system ، Signal Approach