Global Burden, Trends, and Projections of Self-Harm and Interpersonal Violence: ۱۹۹۰–۲۰۴۰

Background: Self-harm and interpersonal violence contribute significantly to global mortality and disability. This study analyzes trends, projects future burdens, and identifies geographic patterns using the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) data. Methods: We analyzed data from the Global Burden of Disease Study ۲۰۲۱ on age-standardized incidence rates (ASIR), disability-adjusted life year rates (ASDR), and mortality rates (ASMR) for self-harm and interpersonal violence across ۲۰۴ countries. Temporal trends were assessed with Joinpoint regression. Projections for the year ۲۰۴۰ were generated using AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and exponential smoothing models. Further, multilevel mixed-effects models examined the role of the Human Development Index (HDI), while spatial clustering was evaluated with Local Moran’s I. Results: Joinpoint regression analysis showed global declines in self-harm and interpersonal violence from ۱۹۹۰ to ۲۰۲۱, with average annual percent changes of-۱.۰۸% for ASIR, -۱.۵۳% for ASDR, and -۱.۳۵% for ASMR. Reductions were observed in Sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia, and Southeast Asia, while increases were observed in North Africa and the Middle East. Projections for ۲۰۴۰ indicate continued declines, although potential regional plateaus may emerge. Multilevel modeling showed no significant differences between developed and less developed regions. Conclusion: Despite the observed global declines, disparities by region and gender necessitate the need for targeted interventions and improved mental health services to further reduce the burden by ۲۰۴۰.

کلیدواژه ها:

Self-harm ، Interpersonal violence ، Projections ، Spatial analysis ، Joinpoint regression