Analysis of Key Factors and Driving Forces Affecting Climate Migration in Talesh County, Gilan Province

Climate-induced migration, as one of the consequences of climate change, has profoundly impacted various regions worldwide, including Talesh County in northern Iran. This study aims to analyze the key factors and driving forces influencing climate migration in Talesh County. The research employs a mixed-methods approach, combining quantitative and qualitative techniques, including statistical data analysis, expert interviews, and the MICMAC model for futures studies. Findings reveal that the primary factors driving climate migration in Talesh County include temperature fluctuations, drought, water scarcity, and land-use changes. Additionally, the driving forces of this phenomenon directly and indirectly affect the region's economic, social, and environmental outcomes. The MICMAC analysis identifies critical factors such as natural resource management, tourism industry development, and national macro-policies as the most effective in mitigating the negative impacts of climate migration. Finally, the study presents multiple scenarios for Talesh County's future up to the year ۲۰۵۱ (۱۴۳۰ SH) and emphasizes the need for integrated planning and local stakeholder engagement to address climate migration challenges. This research can serve as a foundation for future studies and policy-making in migration management and sustainable development.

کلیدواژه ها:

climatic migration ، climate change ، talesh county ، future scenarios