Linear Relationship Between Climatic Factors and Wheat Production in Tehran: A Correlation Analysis

Climate change, as one of the greatest challenges of the ۲۱st century, has created a serious threat to the sustainable production of agricultural crops, particularly wheat, which serves as the backbone of Iran's food security. This threat stems from irregular rainfall patterns, rising average temperatures, and diminishing water resources. According to the IPCC (۲۰۲۱) report, climate change could reduce crop yields in semi-arid regions by up to ۲۰%, a concern that is intensified in Iran, a predominantly arid and semi-arid country, especially in areas like Tehran. Despite its role as the capital and an economic hub, Tehran is a key agricultural region where wheat production is vital for meeting local and regional demands. However, declining seasonal rainfall, increasing frequency of heat events, and pressures from urbanization and limited water resources have posed unprecedented challenges to wheat production in this area. Wheat, due to its strong dependence on climatic factors such as rainfall (for water supply) and temperature (for regulating growth stages like germination and grain filling), is highly vulnerable to climate variability. Nevertheless, the lack of precise local analyses regarding the impact of climatic factors (rainfall, maximum temperature, minimum temperature) on wheat production in Tehran has created a significant knowledge gap. While national and global studies often focus on large-scale or diverse crops, Tehran's unique characteristics—including its semi-arid climate, diverse soils, and mixed farming systems (rainfed and irrigated)—require localized investigations with rigorous statistical approaches. This knowledge gap, combined with intensifying climate change and rising food demand, highlights the necessity of scientific analyses to identify key factors affecting wheat production and propose practical solutions for agricultural sustainability.