Proactive Regulatory Approaches in Insurance: Anticipating Emerging Risks and Enhancing Resilience

The accelerating pace of economic and technological change has fundamentally altered the insurance industry’s risk profile, introducing a wave of emerging threats including cyberattacks, climate-driven catastrophes, and systemic shocks from interconnected financial systems. These developments demand a shift from reactive oversight to proactive, forward-looking regulation, capable of anticipating vulnerabilities before they materialize. This paper proposes and examines a regulatory model that integrates predictive analytics, scenario building, resilience modelling, and regulatory technology (RegTech) with supervisory technology (SupTech) for comprehensive insurance supervision. Drawing on a structured framework, the analysis addresses the typology of emerging risks—technological, climate/environmental, and systemic—and explores advanced modelling tools such as behavioural parameter integration, machine learning–based network analysis, and multi-hazard stress testing. International case studies from the EU, New Zealand, Singapore, and South Africa illustrate practical applications, from cyber risk oversight and parametric earthquake coverage to behavioural stress testing and AI driven claims fraud detection. The paper further outlines a scenario-building approach to assess plausible futures between ۲۰۳۰–۲۰۳۵, providing regulators with pathways for optimizing policy in optimistic, baseline, and pessimistic conditions. Policy recommendations include establishing integrated risk data hubs, mandating climate and cyber stress tests, fostering parametric and resilience-linked products, enabling continuous compliance through SupTech, embedding ethical governance in technological adoption, and embedding scenario based policy revision. Findings demonstrate that proactive supervision enhances risk anticipation, improves intervention timing, and strengthens systemic resilience—particularly when supported by high-quality data governance and interoperable SupTech frameworks. Comparative insights reveal trade offs between uunified coordination and distributed innovation, underscoring the need for balanced governance models. Overall, the study provides actionable guidance for insurance regulators and supervisory bodies seeking to protect solvency, market stability, and consumer trust in an increasingly complex and globally interconnected risk environment.

کلیدواژه ها:

Proactive regulation ، Insurance supervision ، Emerging risks ، Resilience modelling